The UK economy is showing signs of fatigue. Figures released at the end of June confirm that economic growth slowed to 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025. For small business owners, this is more than just a headline as it signals a shift in consumer behaviour, business confidence, and access to finance.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports that household real incomes are falling. Disposable income is down by 1%, and personal saving rates are at their lowest since 2020. In plain terms, consumers have less money in their pockets. For businesses in retail, hospitality, or services, this may already be translating into weaker sales and a rise in price sensitivity.
At the same time, public borrowing is creeping up. Government figures show a rise in borrowing in the early months of the 2025-26 tax year, adding to fiscal pressure on the new government. With several welfare policy U-turns removing planned savings, the Chancellor faces a difficult Autumn Budget. Tax rises, cuts to investment allowances, or delays to business incentives are all possible outcomes.
The result is a more cautious economic mood. Many small business owners are already reporting tighter trading conditions and lengthening payment cycles. For those relying on external finance, the outlook is becoming more complex. Interest rates have remained relatively high, and lenders are applying stricter affordability tests – especially in sectors deemed higher risk.
What should business owners be doing now?
- Revisit your cashflow forecasts – Account for lower revenue assumptions, changes in repayment terms, and higher finance costs. If possible, build in contingency funds for slower months.
- Review your cost base – Rising National Insurance contributions and minimum wage increases from April 2025 may already be having an impact. Consider whether savings can be made without affecting quality or customer service.
- Prepare early for borrowing – If you are planning to seek finance or refinance existing lending, start the process sooner. Banks and alternative lenders will want to see up-to-date management accounts and evidence of strong financial control.
- Talk to us – If you are concerned about profit margins, tax bills, or capital expenditure plans, now is the time to reassess. Small changes in tax planning or investment timing can make a difference.
Although growth is expected to return later in the year, the second half of 2025 is likely to be bumpy. In uncertain times, the businesses that perform best are usually those that plan ahead, communicate clearly, and keep a close eye on the numbers.